Firm Foundation Technology, LLC's Small Business Update
for Monday June 28th, 2004
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Headlines
July CPU Outlook
- Server Processors
- Desktop Processors
- Mobile Processors
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As we reach the midpoint of 2004, it's fitting that we briefly look ahead to what's coming from Intel and AMD in the second half of the year. Intel and AMD, of course, manufacture approximately 96% of all the "brain chips" of computers, the CPUs. (I realize that many people use the term CPU interchangeably with the system case that contains your motherboard, hard drive, DVD drive, etc., but this is technically incorrect. CPUs are really chips that slot into the motherboard and execute all of the instructions you give your computer, and it is those chips that I'm discussing in this article.)
Most small businesses won't be buying the latest and greatest CPUs because of price concerns, but they shouldn't buy the tail-end stuff that is about to be discontinued, either. Most businesses' needs are somewhere in between those extremes. What I want to do is highlight the three categories of CPUs and give you some guidance on what to look for when shopping for new computers this summer and fall. If you need further assistance, please feel free to contact me.
- Server Processors
Intel is expected to announce today (Monday, June 28) a new version of its high-end Xeon processors. These new versions, code-named Nocoma, will be dual 64-bit/32-bit processors. For 95% of small business this chip won't be useful for the money. The only reason you might care is if you have an Oracle or SQL server and you need more server memory. Virtually all Intel-based servers today are limited by their CPU to a maximum of 4 Gigabytes of RAM (a typical PC has 256 MB of RAM, and one Gig is 1000 MB.). The new CPUs from Intel will be able to have up to 256 Terabytes of memory. (A Terabyte is 1000 Gigabytes.)
Intel is actually playing catch-up to rival AMD, who has had similar processors for months and will release the updated versions of its "Opteron" processors during the second half of 2004. Expect processors (CPUs) from both companies to run in the mid-3-gigahertz (GHz) speed range.
-- The Small Business Impact --
Unless you have an Oracle or SQL server *and* you need more RAM, you definitely don't need to consider buying Intel's new Nocoma-class Xeon processors. If you do need a new server of this type, expect these servers to be in the two-to-three thousand dollar range for starting prices. Since most small businesses don't need Nocoma-based servers, hopefully this will also increase pressure to lower prices on Intel's existing high end Pentium 4's and AMD's Athlon MP processors which are used more often in servers marketed to small businesses.
- Desktop Processors
For the second half of 2004 you can expect the market to really start to shift to processors in the mid-to-upper 3 GHz performance range. By year's end I expect there will be no business-grade processors less than 3.0 GHz rated speeds in the mainstream market. By "business-grade," I mean Intel Pentium 4 or AMD Athlon XP processors. Except for those businesses that rarely use computers, I do not recommend buying systems based on Celeron or Duron processors. (It's complicated to explain, so I'm not going to go into the reasoning behind the recommendation here.)
The next real changes in desktop processors won't take place until late in 2005 when Intel and AMD will start offering so-called "dual-core" processors. "Dual core" processors are CPUs that literally will have two CPU's in the same unit. We'll just have to wait and see what the real impact of this development will be for the end user, but it should be pretty significant.
-- The Small Business Impact --
Desktop computers are almost a commodity now, and that means prices will only continue to fall while processing speeds continue to increase. The amount of computing power that a mere thousand dollars will buy you today is staggering compared to just two years ago. If you're buying, look for Intel Pentium 4 or AMD Athlon XP processors.
- Mobile Processors
Processors designed for notebooks and laptops will generally continue to get faster while they continue to use less and less power. Less power drain means longer battery life, but the trade-off is processor speed. If you want a processor designed specifically for a notebook, you'll be stuck somewhere below 2.0 GHz this year unless you are willing to shell out $3000 or more. Some notebooks are sold with the same processors you can get in desktop PCs, but the battery life tradeoff is usually daunting.
The biggest change I see over the next six months for notebooks and other portables (excluding PDAs; they use a completely different type of CPU) is that nearly all of them will have built-in wireless (WiFi or 802.llb/g) networking capabilities. Just in time for the new WiMax standard to become available.
-- The Small Business Impact --
Like desktops, prices will continue to fall, and speeds will continue to rise, though there will continue to be some trade-offs. Using a notebook computer to completely replace a standard PC is finally achievable no matter what class of notebook you buy (traditional laptop, ultra-portable, tablet PC). Look for WiMax to challenge the ubiquitous WiFi wireless networking standard in 2005.
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See you next week
Stan
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